- US imports Russian diesel by November 15?8¢8%
- US imports Russian diesel by November 30?13¢13%
- US imports Russian diesel by December 31?17¢17%
- US imports Russian diesel by January 31?18¢18%
- US imports Russian diesel by March 31?23¢23%
- 1%7,5%November 15$ 64,5K vol.
- 12,5%November 30$ 371,6K vol.
- 1%16,5%December 31$ 142,8K vol.
- 1%18%January 31$ 121,1K vol.
- 4%22,5%March 31$ 45,9K vol.
The October 9 Trump-Putin agreement and accompanying Treasury General License 135 authorizing Russian diesel imports through April 2027 represent the central catalyst shifting trader sentiment, overriding the 2022 congressional ban. Elevated U.S. retail diesel prices near $6.30 per gallon and inventories below 100 million barrels for the first time in over two decades have underscored the policy rationale, though Russia’s exportable surplus remains constrained at roughly 240,000 barrels per day amid refinery outages. Three initial tankers loaded in late October, with the first due in New York around November 7; however, two have diverted amid state-level warnings, sanctions exposure on vessels, and unresolved questions over buyer compliance. Key near-term resolution factors include physical discharge of the Agioi Fanendes cargo and any congressional or regulatory pushback that could halt further deliveries.
Regels
On October 9, 2026, Donald Trump announced an agreement with Vladimir Putin to import Russian diesel fuel, and the United States Treasury issued General License 135 authorizing the importation of Russian-origin diesel fuel into the United States through April 7, 2027 (see: https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/117412435306815143 & https://ofac.treasury.gov/recent-actions/20261009_33). This market will resolve to “Yes” if Russian diesel fuel is imported to the United States between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Russian diesel fuel refers to diesel fuel of Russian production origin. Imported to the United States refers to the diesel fuel being physically delivered to a United States port or into the terrestrial territory of the United States for commercial or government use within the United States. Diesel fuel carried as a vessel’s own fuel, held in bond for re-export, or passing through the United States in transit to another country will not qualify. To qualify, the import must either be described by a consensus of credible reporting as having been made under the agreement announced on October 9, 2026 (or any amended or successor arrangement between the governments of the United States and Russia), or be authorized under General License 135 (or any amended or successor authorization permitting the importation of Russian-origin diesel fuel). The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.