- Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by December 31, 2026?8¢8%
- Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30, 2027?27¢27%
- Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by December 31, 2027?31¢31%
- 7,5%December 31, 2026$ 3 mln. vol.
- 1%26,5%June 30, 2027$ 104,4 vol.
- 31%December 31, 2027
Recent US-mediated diplomatic activity has revived momentum for Ukraine-Russia negotiations, with technical-level trilateral talks confirmed for November 10-11 in Abu Dhabi focused on post-war security arrangements, de-escalation measures, and potential partial ceasefires in energy or maritime sectors. Ukrainian officials have signaled openness to freezing current front lines or incremental deals while seeking long-term security guarantees and reconstruction support, though Russia continues to demand full control of annexed regions including Donbas and limits on Ukrainian military capabilities or NATO ties. A recent localized humanitarian ceasefire in Kherson demonstrates limited progress amid broader territorial and neutrality disputes. Traders assessing near-term resolution timelines weigh these exploratory sessions against persistent battlefield dynamics and the possibility of follow-on leader-level meetings or external factors such as the planned EU summit later in November.
Regels
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not. Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify. The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.