- Will Donald Trump publicly insult Kevin Warsh by November 30, 2026?3¢3%
- Will Donald Trump publicly insult Kevin Warsh by December 31, 2026?13¢13%
- 2,9%November 30$ 9,5K vol.
- 1%13%December 31$ 25,2K vol.
Recent election losses for Republicans and Democratic gains in congressional oversight have eased immediate political pressure on Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh, with President Trump continuing to describe him as “great” while directing criticism at the broader FOMC board as “hostile” and “political.” Warsh’s September 25-basis-point rate hike to the 3.75-4.00% target range, followed by a hold ahead of midterms, has reinforced his emphasis on the Fed’s 2% inflation mandate amid tariff-driven price pressures and energy cost spikes from the Iran conflict. Markets price in limited near-term policy shifts, with trader focus on whether Warsh sustains this independence or faces renewed administration demands for lower rates as inflation data and congressional scrutiny intensify.
Regels
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump makes any public statement in which he insults Kevin Warsh between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A public statement is any written, verbal, or recorded statement which is either made in a public setting, published by the speaker, or on the record to media, and the direct language of which is made publicly available within the specified timeframe. Pre-recorded public statements will count for the date (ET) that they are made publicly available. Statements made in private that are subsequently leaked will not qualify, even if credibly reported. Narrations and paraphrasings do not qualify. Images and videos posted on verified social media accounts will only qualify if they contain insulting language clearly directed at Kevin Warsh, whether within the content itself or in an accompanying caption. Language within the content of a video will only qualify if Donald Trump is clearly portrayed as saying it. Insulting language within the content of a video said by anyone other than Donald Trump or a portrayal thereof will not qualify. A quote post will qualify if added language independently qualifies as an insult, or endorses insulting language directed at Kevin Warsh within the quoted post; a repost of another account's post will not qualify. A public statement qualifies as an insult if it mocks, degrades, or disparages Kevin Warsh either personally or professionally. This includes calling him a clearly insulting trait (e.g., weak, stupid, disloyal, a failure), using an insulting nickname (e.g., Crooked Hillary), using other clearly derogatory language, or using the negative form of a positive trait in a clearly derogatory manner (e.g., “He isn’t smart”, “He has no judgment”). Disparaging Kevin Warsh in his professional capacity will qualify (e.g., "He is a disaster candidate," "He is terrible at his job"); however, negative comments directed at his specific actions, policies, or decisions will not qualify (e.g., "He has bad policies," "He is wrong about healthcare"). A statement made in direct reference to Kevin Warsh will qualify even if he is not named, so long as it is reasonably clear from context that he is the subject. The resolution sources will be public statements made by Donald Trump and a consensus of credible reporting.