- Will the Swiss National Bank increase the SNB policy rate by 50+ bps at the December meeting?<1¢<1%
- Will the Swiss National Bank increase the SNB policy rate by 25 bps at the December meeting?15¢15%
- Will the Swiss National Bank make no change to the SNB policy rate at the December meeting?86¢86%
- Will the Swiss National Bank decrease the SNB policy rate by 25 bps at the December meeting?<1¢<1%
- Will the Swiss National Bank decrease the SNB policy rate by 50+ bps at the December meeting?<1¢<1%
- 0,2%50+ bps increase$ 6,8K vol.
- 6%14,6%25 bps increase$ 37,9K vol.
- 6%86,2%No Change$ 21,3K vol.
- 0,2%25 bps decrease$ 7,7K vol.
The Swiss National Bank’s December 10 decision carries an 89.9% market-implied probability of no change from the current 0% policy rate, reflecting contained inflationary pressures and the central bank’s recent communications. October CPI rose to 1.5% year-over-year—the highest since late 2023—primarily from higher energy prices, yet core inflation stayed near 0.5% with no evident second-round effects and the overall rate remaining well inside the 0-2% target band. Chairman Martin Schlegel’s November 5 remarks underscored that monetary policy has kept inflation on target through recent shocks, while the SNB has signaled willingness to use foreign-exchange intervention rather than immediate rate adjustments. With the next data releases and the conditional inflation forecast due at the meeting, traders assign only an 8.3% chance to a 25 basis point hike and negligible odds to larger moves.
Regels
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the SNB policy rate resulting from the December 2026 meeting of the Swiss National Bank, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting. The resolution source will be official information from the Swiss National Bank, including the statement or release from its December 2026 monetary policy assessment, scheduled for December 10, 2026, as listed on the official Swiss National Bank calendar (https://www.snb.ch/en/services-events/digital-services/event-schedule). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Swiss National Bank resulting from its December 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound. If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size. If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.