- Will voter turnout be less than 62% in the 2026 Spanish general election?5¢5%
- Will voter turnout be between 62% and 64% in the 2026 Spanish general election?8¢8%
- Will voter turnout be between 64% and 66% in the 2026 Spanish general election?13¢13%
- Will voter turnout be between 66% and 68% in the 2026 Spanish general election?23¢23%
- Will voter turnout be between 68% and 70% in the 2026 Spanish general election?21¢21%
- Will voter turnout be 70% or higher in the 2026 Spanish general election?34¢34%
- 4,7%<62%$ 1,3K vol.
- 8%62-64%$ 2,2K vol.
- 3%13,3%64-66%$ 777,6 vol.
- 8%23%66-68%$ 1,8K vol.
- 3%20,5%68-70%$ 1,9K vol.
- 8%33,5%70%+$ 11,8K vol.
The snap general election on November 29, called after housing decrees failed amid widespread protests, has heightened issue salience around affordability and polarization between the PSOE-led left and the PP-Vox right, supporting trader consensus around elevated turnout in the 68-70%+ range. Recent polling averages indicate a competitive contest with new voters entering the rolls and parties intensifying mobilization efforts in the campaign's final phase, while historical benchmarks from 2023 and earlier cycles provide context for potential participation levels. Scheduled events including the campaign close and polling day itself remain key variables that could consolidate probabilities across the provided brackets depending on last-minute engagement and external factors such as weather or logistics.
Regels
A general election is scheduled to be held in Spain on November 29, 2026. This market will resolve according to the official voter turnout rate for the 2026 Spanish general election to the Congress of Deputies, defined as the total number of votes cast (votantes) divided by the total number of registered voters (electores). (see 2023 example: https://www.boe.es/boe/dias/2023/09/01/pdfs/BOE-A-2023-18907.pdf) If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket. If the results of this election are not definitively known by November 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. The primary resolution source for this market will be official election results reported by the Spanish government, including the Spanish Ministry of the Interior (https://infoelectoral.interior.gob.es/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used if official results are not available.