- Will PP win the most seats in Burgos in the 2026 Spanish general election?86¢86%
- Will PSOE win the most seats in Burgos in the 2026 Spanish general election?3¢3%
- Will Vox win the most seats in Burgos in the 2026 Spanish general election?<1¢<1%
- Will Broad Front (FA) win the most seats in Burgos in the 2026 Spanish general election?<1¢<1%
- Will Podemos win the most seats in Burgos in the 2026 Spanish general election?<1¢<1%
1%86,4%PP$ 4,5K vol.
11%3,3%PSOE$ 2K vol.
2%0,4%Vox$ 4,2K vol.
1%0,4%Broad Front (FA)$ 2K vol.
0,2%Podemos$ 1,5K vol.
PP leads the Burgos seat projection with an 81.7% market-implied probability, ahead of PSOE at 17.9% and Vox at 1.1%, reflecting consistent local polling that allocates two of the province’s four Congress seats to the PP. Recent GAD3 and ElectoralLab estimates for the November 29 election show PP at approximately 37–40% vote share, PSOE near 31–32%, and Vox around 20%, producing a 2-1-1 seat split. This positioning stems from PP’s established strength in Castilla y León, ongoing national polling advantages for the center-right, and a measurable transfer of support from PSOE to Vox in the province. The official campaign period begins November 13, with no major late developments altering the local ordering in the past week. Traders price the outcome according to these verified provincial trends and D’Hondt allocation mechanics.
Regels
Legislative elections to elect the 350 members of the Congress of Deputies of Spain are scheduled to take place on November 29, 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Congress of Deputies of Spain in the constituency of Burgos as a result of this election. If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by November 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". Parties will be ranked by the number of seats won by their electoral lists (candidaturas) in the constituency of Burgos, attributed as set out below. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received by their lists in the constituency of Burgos, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party names. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. Seats and votes will be attributed according to the electoral list on which they were obtained, as reported in the official results, regardless of the party membership of individual candidates. Lists will be attributed as follows: PSOE: lists of the Spanish Socialist Workers' Party, including the Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC) lists in Catalonia. PP: lists of the People's Party, including the joint UPN–PP list in Navarre. Broad Front (FA): all Broad Front lists, including Catalunya en Comú in Catalonia, Compromís–Valencian Front in the Valencian Community, and Canarian People’s Unity (UPC) in the Canary Islands. ERC: Republican Left of Catalonia lists, including the joint ERC–Podem lists in Catalonia. Podemos: only lists presented by Podemos on its own. CCa: Canarian Coalition lists, including the joint CCa–1º CAN lists in the Canary Islands. Any other list will be attributed to the party or coalition that presents it, as named in the official proclamation of candidacies. Electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent changes in party affiliation or parliamentary-group membership will not be considered. This market will resolve based on the results of the elections, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the results as reported by the Spanish Ministry of the Interior (https://infoelectoral.interior.gob.es/).