Skin cancer vaccine BLA submitted by...?
WetenschapTechFDAVaccineCancerModerna
Startdatum
2026-08-19
Einddatum
2027-07-01
Volume 24u
$12K
Totaal volume
$102K
  • Skin cancer vaccine BLA submitted by March 31, 2027?54¢54%
  • Skin cancer vaccine BLA submitted by June 30, 2027?84¢84%

Recent positive Phase 3 results from the INTerpath-001 trial for Moderna and Merck’s personalized mRNA neoantigen vaccine intismeran, combined with Keytruda, have strengthened trader expectations around a near-term BLA submission. The data showed a 42% reduction in recurrence or death risk and 38% lower distant metastasis risk versus pembrolizumab alone in resected high-risk melanoma patients, with two-year recurrence-free survival reaching 82%. Companies are actively engaging regulators and targeting a filing to support potential 2027 launch, building on prior breakthrough and fast-track designations. Competitive positioning favors this mRNA approach over DNA plasmid or other candidates, though full survival data and manufacturing scalability remain key variables that could influence timelines or approval odds.

Regels

This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is officially announced that a Biologics License Application (BLA) for intismeran autogene has been submitted to the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA), or that the FDA has accepted such an application for review, by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Intismeran autogene refers to the individualized neoantigen therapy developed by Moderna and Merck and evaluated in the Phase 3 INTerpath-001 trial (NCT05933577), also known as mRNA-4157 and V940, together with any brand, trade, or nonproprietary name later assigned to that product, as well as any renamed or modified version that the relevant company or the FDA identify as the same product or a direct continuation of the V940/mRNA-4157 program. A qualifying application must seek FDA licensure of intismeran autogene through a Biologics License Application (BLA). An original BLA or a resubmission of such a BLA following FDA action will qualify. The application may cover any indication. A qualifying announcement must come from the relevant company submitting the BLA, the FDA, or authorized representatives thereof. The submission must already have occurred at the time of the statement. A statement of intent, plan, guidance, or expected timing will not qualify. If the FDA grants approval of intismeran autogene on or before June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes", whether or not a submission was separately disclosed. The primary resolution source for this market will be official communications from the company submitting the BLA, the FDA, or authorized representatives thereof; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Skin cancer vaccine BLA submitted by...?

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