- SCOTUS grants Trump Birthright Citizenship Rehearing by December 31?<1¢<1%
The Supreme Court’s June 30, 2026, 6-3 decision in Trump v. Barbara resolved the core constitutional question on birthright citizenship under the Fourteenth Amendment’s Citizenship Clause, with Chief Justice Roberts writing for a majority that included both conservative and liberal justices. No timely petition for rehearing was filed by the July 27 deadline, and the Court has not granted rehearing in a fully argued case for more than five decades. These procedural and institutional realities, combined with the absence of new docket developments that would justify revisiting the ruling, drive the 99.5 percent trader consensus against a grant by December 31. Only an extraordinary procedural irregularity or unprecedented shift in the Court’s internal practices could still alter the outcome.
Regels
The Supreme Court struck down Donald Trump’s Executive Order “Protecting the Meaning and Value of American Citizenship” in Trump v. Barbara (https://www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/25pdf/25-365_4hdj.pdf) on June 30, 2026. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Supreme Court of the United States grants a petition by the executive branch of the United States for a rehearing in that case by December 31, 2026 at 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A ruling to allow briefing on whether the Court should rehear the case will not be sufficient to resolve this market to “Yes”, nor will an amendment or correction to the Court's opinion that does not constitute a formal grant of rehearing. If a Supreme Court ruling on this case denies a petition to rehear the case, or if no such petition is filed by the applicable deadlines, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Supreme Court of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.