- Will SB Energy's market cap be less than $40B at market close on IPO day?1¢1%
- Will SB Energy's market cap be between $40B and $50B at market close on IPO day?3¢3%
- Will SB Energy's market cap be between $50B and $60B at market close on IPO day?<1¢<1%
- Will SB Energy's market cap be between $60B and $70B at market close on IPO day?1¢1%
- Will SB Energy's market cap be between $70B and $80B at market close on IPO day?<1¢<1%
- Will SB Energy's market cap be between $80B and $100B at market close on IPO day?1¢1%
- Will SB Energy's market cap be between $100B and $125B at market close on IPO day?<1¢<1%
- Will SB Energy's market cap be at least $125B at market close on IPO day?2¢2%
- Will SB Energy not IPO before January 2027?86¢86%
- 1,1%<$40B$ 1,1K vol.
- 3,4%$40B-$50B$ 16,1K vol.
- 0,6%$50B-$60B$ 11,3K vol.
- 1,1%$60B-$70B$ 4,3K vol.
- 0,8%$70B-$80B$ 2K vol.
- 1,2%$80B-$100B$ 2,4K vol.
- 0,7%$100B-$125B$ 1K vol.
- 1,7%$125B+$ 1,4K vol.
- 6%86,4%No IPO before January 2027$ 16,7K vol.
SB Energy’s delayed IPO timeline has driven overwhelming trader consensus toward no listing before January 2027. The SoftBank-controlled developer filed its S-1 in early September 2026 targeting a $5–7 billion raise to fund its 8.5 GW Ohio data center campus for OpenAI, yet investor pushback on a roughly $60 billion valuation—amid just $139 million in first-half revenue and heavy dependence on future lease payments—prompted a pause. Cooling appetite for AI infrastructure offerings, highlighted by Firmus’s withdrawal, led the company in late October to weigh a December debut or further delay while monitoring Anthropic’s November performance as a market test. With the Ohio project’s phased operations not beginning until 2028 and substantial additional financing still required, the current market-implied odds reflect these execution and sentiment hurdles rather than any confirmed resolution.
Regels
This market will resolve based on SB Energy's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading. If no such IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before January 2027". Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the total number of outstanding shares, multiplied by the official closing share price of the publicly traded class on the first trading day. If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently. The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings). The closing share price on the first trading day will be determined from the primary exchange’s official listing page. If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The primary resolution source for this market will be official company filings and the primary exchange’s official listing page. The market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the total outstanding shares and the closing price from the first day of trading. In the event of an interruption in the normal trading session on the specified company’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that day as the first day of trading for the purposes of this market.