- Rubio's Republican nomination odds hit 30% by December 31?17¢17%
- Rubio's Republican nomination odds hit 25% by December 31?71¢71%
- Rubio's Republican nomination odds dip to 15% by December 31?47¢47%
- 12%16,5%↑ 30%$ 5,1K vol.
- 28%70,5%↑ 25%$ 1,7K vol.
- 6%47%↓ 15%$ 1,2K vol.
Recent Republican midterm losses, including control of both congressional chambers amid backlash over the Iran conflict and energy costs, have reshaped early positioning for the 2028 GOP presidential nomination. Marco Rubio, serving as Secretary of State and National Security Advisor, has drawn attention as a potential contender who largely avoided direct association with those issues, unlike Vice President JD Vance. Reports of possible Rubio resignation to launch a bid circulated widely but were denied by Rubio and the White House, with the senator stating his intent to complete his term. Polling remains fluid, with Vance typically leading but Rubio closing gaps or leading in some surveys; Polymarket assigns Vance roughly double Rubio’s implied probability. Key variables include any formal announcements, further distancing efforts from administration policies, and primary voter reactions to foreign policy outcomes before year-end.
Regels
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Marco Rubio's hourly odds value in the "2028 Republican Nomination" listing on PredictionMarketOdds.com meets or exceeds 25% for 4 consecutive hourly odds values, all published for a datapoint between market creation and January 1, 2027, 12:00 AM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An hourly odds value is the value in the "Odds of Happening" column that PredictionMarketOdds.com publishes for an option for a one-hour "Time Window (ET)", as shown on the listing page and in the "Odds History" graph on that option's detail page. Hourly odds values are compared at the precision published by PredictionMarketOdds.com (one tenth of a percent). An hour in which Marco Rubio's hourly odds value is below 25% ends any run of consecutive hourly odds values. Hours for which PredictionMarketOdds.com publishes no hourly odds value for Marco Rubio (shown as "NO_PRINT") will be disregarded and will neither count toward nor end a run of consecutive hourly odds values. If PredictionMarketOdds.com permanently ceases publishing hourly odds values for Marco Rubio in the "2028 Republican Nomination" listing before January 1, 2027, 12:00 AM ET, including by removing Marco Rubio from the listing, this market will resolve based on the hourly odds values published up to that point. If no hourly odds values have been published for Marco Rubio between market creation and January 1, 2027, 12:00 AM ET, this market will resolve to "No". If the underlying market is officially decided before the listed end date, this market will resolve to "Yes" if Marco Rubio is the outcome of the underlying market and otherwise to "No". If a published hourly odds value is clearly erroneous as a result of a technical or operational error, this market may remain open for up to an additional 48 hours after that value is first published to allow for a correction. A corrected value will be used in place of the original. If no correction is published within that period, the original value will stand, and revisions published after that period will not be considered. The resolution source for this market is PredictionMarketOdds.com, specifically the hourly odds values for Marco Rubio in the "2028 Republican Nomination" listing at https://predictionmarketodds.com/gop-nomination-2028.html and on Marco Rubio's detail page, reached by clicking the option's name in the listing. Prices shown on any individual prediction market will not be considered.