- Will no next Israeli Minister of Defense be appointed by February 28, 2027?33¢33%
- Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Israeli Minister of Defense?19¢19%
- Will Naftali Bennett be the next Israeli Minister of Defense?12¢12%
- Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Israeli Minister of Defense?12¢12%
- Will Israel Katz be the next Israeli Minister of Defense?4¢4%
- Will Moshe Feiglin be the next Israeli Minister of Defense?2¢2%
- Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Israeli Minister of Defense?2¢2%
- Will Ofer Winter be the next Israeli Minister of Defense?<1¢<1%
- Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Israeli Minister of Defense?<1¢<1%
- Will Yoram Cohen be the next Israeli Minister of Defense?<1¢<1%
- Will Bezalel Smotrich be the next Israeli Minister of Defense?<1¢<1%
- Will Eli Cohen be the next Israeli Minister of Defense?<1¢<1%
- 11%33,1%No Next Minister by Feb 28$ 90,3K vol.
9%18,6%Avigdor Lieberman$ 42,9K vol.
4%12,2%Naftali Bennett$ 20,3K vol.
2%11,7%Gadi Eizenkot$ 3,3K vol.
1%4,4%Israel Katz$ 9,6K vol.
2%2,1%Moshe Feiglin$ 4K vol.
2%Itamar Ben Gvir$ 2,6K vol.
0,9%Ofer Winter$ 11,4K vol.
0,7%Benjamin Netanyahu$ 1,7K vol.
0,6%Yoram Cohen$ 1,7K vol.
0,4%Bezalel Smotrich$ 2,9K vol.
0,3%Eli Cohen$ 1,5K vol.
The tight clustering of implied probabilities among leading candidates for Israel's next defense minister stems from fluid coalition negotiations and competing priorities within the governing alliance, where security expertise, party loyalty, and regional threat assessments balance against one another. Multiple figures with military backgrounds or prior ministerial roles remain viable as no single contender has secured decisive backing amid ongoing debates over defense spending and operational strategy. Scheduled votes on related legislation or shifts in threat assessments from border areas could consolidate support for one profile over others, while delays in government formation would sustain the current equilibrium reflected in trader positioning.
Regels
This market will resolve to the individual who first assumes office as Israeli Minister of Defense in the first government formed following the 2026 Knesset elections. To count for resolution, the individual’s ministership must be approved by the Knesset in a vote of confidence in that government or a subsequent vote approving the individual’s appointment to that government. Any interim or caretaker Minister of Defense will not count toward the resolution of this market. Once a qualifying individual assumes office, subsequent replacements will not affect resolution. The individual must be appointed as “Minister of Defense” or be appointed to the ministerial position confirmed to be its successor position, retaining its primary responsibilities, by a consensus of credible reporting. Positions that assume only secondary responsibilities will not qualify as a successor. If the primary portfolio responsibilities previously assigned to Minister of Defense are attributable to multiple successor positions, this market will resolve to the individual appointed to one of the successor positions whose full name comes first in alphabetical order. If no such Minister of Defense assumes office by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Next Minister by Feb 28”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.