- Will Geraldo Alckmin be the next Brazilian Minister of Finance?27¢27%
- Will Dario Durigan be the next Brazilian Minister of Finance?24¢24%
- Will Rafael Fonteles be the next Brazilian Minister of Finance?17¢17%
- Will Fernando Haddad be the next Brazilian Minister of Finance?15¢15%
- Will Gabriel Galípolo be the next Brazilian Minister of Finance?9¢9%
- Will Aloizio Mercadante be the next Brazilian Minister of Finance?6¢6%
- Will Rogério Ceron be the next Brazilian Minister of Finance?5¢5%
- Will Gleisi Hoffmann be the next Brazilian Minister of Finance?3¢3%
- Will Paulo Guedes be the next Brazilian Minister of Finance?3¢3%
- Will Simone Tebet be the next Brazilian Minister of Finance?1¢1%
3%27%Geraldo Alckmin$ 2,3K vol.
6%24%Dario Durigan$ 1,6K vol.
11%16,5%Rafael Fonteles$ 2,4K vol.
1%15,4%Fernando Haddad$ 538,7 vol.
5%8,6%Gabriel Galípolo$ 740,6 vol.
6,5%Aloizio Mercadante$ 844 vol.
5,2%Rogério Ceron$ 263,9 vol.
3,3%Gleisi Hoffmann$ 405 vol.
2,5%Paulo Guedes$ 797,9 vol.
1,2%Simone Tebet$ 892,3 vol.
Lula’s reelection in October 2026 has left the Finance Ministry appointment open, with trader consensus reflecting broad uncertainty across dozens of names as the president weighs political loyalty, congressional leverage, and market demands for fiscal restraint before forming his January 2027 cabinet. Current interim minister Dario Durigan retains relatively elevated odds due to continuity and recent meetings with Lula on spending adjustments, while Vice President Geraldo Alckmin and Piauí Governor Rafael Fonteles draw attention for their fiscal records and campaign roles, yet no frontrunner has separated decisively. The wide field stays compressed because Lula has signaled no rush to decide until after mid-November trips, and any choice must navigate coalition pressures without alienating investors concerned about debt dynamics. Confirmation of a single candidate through official announcements or credible reporting on cabinet formation could rapidly consolidate probabilities, as could signals on fiscal package priorities.
Regels
This market will resolve to the individual who first assumes office as Brazilian Minister of Finance (Ministro da Fazenda) in the government of the President of Brazil whose term begins on January 5, 2027. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally appointed to that government by the President of Brazil. An individual serving as Minister of Finance at the end of the previous term who is reappointed or retained in that position at the start of the new term will count as assuming office in that government. Any interim or caretaker Minister of Finance will not count toward the resolution of this market. Once a qualifying individual assumes office, subsequent replacements will not affect resolution. The individual must be appointed as “Minister of Finance” or be appointed to the ministerial position confirmed to be its successor position, retaining its primary responsibilities, by a consensus of credible reporting. Positions that assume only secondary responsibilities will not qualify as a successor. If the primary portfolio responsibilities previously assigned to Minister of Finance are attributable to multiple successor positions, this market will resolve to the individual appointed to one of the successor positions whose full name comes first in alphabetical order. If no such Minister of Finance assumes office by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.