- National Guard deployed to election sites by November 7, 2026?<1¢<1%
- National Guard deployed to election sites by November 15, 2026?1¢1%
- National Guard deployed to election sites by November 30, 2026?3¢3%
- National Guard deployed to election sites by December 31, 2026?3¢3%
- 0,5%November 7$ 605,6 vol.
- 1,1%November 15$ 1,6K vol.
- 2%2,7%November 30$ 3,3K vol.
- 3%2,5%December 31$ 9,2K vol.
State officials in Washington activated roughly 100 unarmed National Guard members in plain clothes for limited “Election Neighborhood Watch” monitoring of ballot drop boxes in seven counties ahead of the November 3, 2026 midterms, with the mission running through November 10. Federal military leaders, including Joint Chiefs Chairman Gen. Dan Caine, repeatedly stated there were no plans to deploy active-duty troops or federalized Guard personnel to polling sites or to handle ballots or voting equipment. Other states reported Guard support limited to cybersecurity or response to isolated threats such as suspicious mailings, without site-level presence. Legal restrictions under federal statutes and the Posse Comitatus Act continue to shape the scope of any potential deployments, while scheduled post-election activities such as canvassing and certification remain under state and local control.
Regels
This market will resolve to "Yes" if federalized National Guard personnel are deployed to a polling place or a vote-counting or canvassing center in the United States between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying deployment requires National Guard personnel who have been called into federal service or placed under orders pursuant to Title 10 of the U.S. Code (including under 10 U.S.C. § 12406 or the Insurrection Act, 10 U.S.C. §§ 251–255) to be assigned to, and physically present at, a polling place, early voting site, or facility where ballots are counted, tabulated, or canvassed (including an election office conducting a count, recount, or canvass) in connection with the November 3, 2026 U.S. elections or any count, recount, or canvass of those elections. National Guard personnel serving in State Active Duty or Title 32 status, including routine election support under a governor's authority (e.g. cybersecurity, logistics, or poll worker assistance), will not qualify. Deployments of the District of Columbia National Guard or of Title 32 personnel in Washington, D.C. will likewise not qualify unless those personnel are called into federal service under Title 10. Incidental presence of Guard personnel near a polling place or counting facility in the course of a deployment not assigned to that location will not qualify. Statements, announcements, threats, or orders to deploy will not qualify unless federalized National Guard personnel are physically deployed to a qualifying location. Deployments of active-duty military personnel other than the National Guard, or of federal law enforcement personnel, will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official U.S. government statements; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.