- Modi out by December 31, 2026?2¢2%
Narendra Modi's entrenched position as India's prime minister, backed by the BJP-led NDA coalition and absence of any internal party challenge, drives the overwhelming trader consensus against his departure by late 2026. Recent cabinet resolutions marking his 25 years in elected office and record continuous tenure underscore sustained institutional support, while the 2024 Lok Sabha results and subsequent state-level gains have reinforced the alliance's parliamentary majority. Opposition-led protests over electoral processes and voter rolls have generated noise but produced no procedural or political momentum capable of triggering resignation or a no-confidence vote. With the next general election not due until 2029, scheduled state polls in 2027 remain the nearest test of strength. Late developments such as a sudden health event or coalition fracture could still introduce uncertainty, though current pricing reflects the low probability of such shifts before year-end.
Regels
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Narendra Modi ceases to be Prime Minister of India for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Narendra Modi's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Narendra Modi and the government of India; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.