- Marco Rubio out as Secretary of State by November 6, 2026?<1¢<1%
- Marco Rubio out as Secretary of State by November 8, 2026?<1¢<1%
- Marco Rubio out as Secretary of State by November 15, 2026?3¢3%
- Marco Rubio out as Secretary of State by November 30, 2026?5¢5%
- Marco Rubio out as Secretary of State by December 31, 2026?14¢14%
- Marco Rubio out as Secretary of State by March 31, 2027?28¢28%
- 21%0,4%November 6, 2026$ 16,6K vol.
- 13%0,5%November 8, 2026$ 24,2K vol.
- 18%3%November 15, 2026$ 26,4K vol.
- 20%4,5%November 30, 2026$ 22,1K vol.
- 16%13,5%December 31, 2026$ 25K vol.
- 18%27,5%March 31, 2027$ 12,6K vol.
The Secretary of State position operates at the president's discretion, allowing removal without Senate approval or formal process. Marco Rubio's early 2025 confirmation positioned him to handle diplomacy, alliances, sanctions, and executive foreign policy actions. Trader assessments center on post-2026 midterm dynamics, administration priorities, and any cabinet realignments that historically follow electoral cycles. No confirmed public statements or procedural developments signal an imminent departure in the past month, though scheduled congressional sessions and diplomatic events could alter perceptions of continuity. Structural factors such as term norms and performance on key portfolios remain central to ongoing probability assessments.
Regels
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Marco Rubio ceases to be U.S. Secretary of State for any period of time between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Marco Rubio's resignation/removal by this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Marco Rubio and the U.S. government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.