- Will Hsieh Kuo-liang win the next Keelung Mayor election?65¢65%
- Will Tung Tzu-wei win the next Keelung Mayor election?35¢35%
6%65%Hsieh Kuo-liang$ 12K vol.
7%35%Tung Tzu-wei$ 13,5K vol.
The Keelung mayoral race remains a tight contest between KMT incumbent Hsieh Kuo-liang and DPP challenger Tung Tzu-wei ahead of the November 28 vote, with a minor independent also on the ballot. Recent polling from November 9–11 shows Tung leading 38.4% to 35.1% overall and widening the margin among likely voters, driven by higher turnout intent among his supporters and some cross-party endorsements for the challenger. Earlier surveys had favored Hsieh, reflecting his incumbency and governance record. A November 10 debate highlighted policy contrasts and minor gaffes. Traders price Hsieh as the clear favorite at 69% implied probability versus Tung at 31.5%, consistent with historical patterns favoring incumbents in local Taiwanese elections despite the current polling closeness and two-week timeline to results.
Regels
Taiwanese local elections are scheduled to be held on November 28, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Mayor of Keelung as a result of this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder Mayors appointed before the election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known, or no candidate has been elected, by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Taiwanese government, specifically the Central Election Commission (https://db.cec.gov.tw/).