- Iran nuclear test before 2027?2¢2%
Ongoing diplomatic negotiations between Iran and the United States, mediated by Qatar and others, combined with extensive damage to enrichment facilities from 2025–2026 strikes, underpin the 97.9% trader consensus against an Iranian nuclear test before 2027. IAEA reports confirm limited access to sites and unverifiable stockpiles of highly enriched uranium, while enrichment activities appear halted amid reconstruction challenges at locations like Natanz and Pickaxe Mountain. Public statements from Iranian officials reaffirm NPT commitments despite internal debates over nuclear doctrine. Realistic scenarios that could shift odds include rapid escalation resuming hostilities, successful covert weaponization of existing material, or breakdown in talks that prompts a breakout decision within the narrow remaining window.
Regels
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield. Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution. Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran. The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.