- Insurrection Act invoked by December 31?7¢7%
President Donald Trump has repeatedly referenced the Insurrection Act in connection with immigration enforcement operations and responses to associated protests, including threats during unrest in Minneapolis earlier in 2026 and prior discussions around urban crime and border security. The law permits deployment of active-duty forces or federalization of the National Guard when state authorities cannot maintain order or enforce federal statutes. Midterm elections concluded on November 3 without invocation despite pre-election speculation about polling-site security or emergency measures. Recent National Guard planning for rapid-response units has focused on civil disturbance support but remains distinct from formal Insurrection Act authority. Traders assess low near-term likelihood absent widespread violence overwhelming local law enforcement or new escalations in specific cities.
Regels
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump officially invokes the Insurrection Act of 1807 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, "invoke" means that the President formally announces the use of the Insurrection Act as legal authority for deploying active-duty U.S. military forces or federalizing the National Guard in response to civil disorder, insurrection, or rebellion. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.