- Will the US lose more than 25k jobs in October?<1¢<1%
- Will the US lose between 0 and 25k jobs in October?<1¢<1%
- Will the US add between 0 and 25k jobs in October?<1¢<1%
- Will the US add between 25k and 50k jobs in October?<1¢<1%
- Will the US add between 50k and 75k jobs in October?<1¢<1%
- Will the US add between 75k and 100k jobs in October?<1¢<1%
- Will the US add at least 100k jobs in October?>99¢>99%
- 71%100%100k+$ 23,2K vol.
Recent ADP private payrolls data showing an 86,000 gain in October has introduced uncertainty ahead of the BLS nonfarm payrolls release, tempering expectations after September's modest +29,000 increase and downward revisions to prior months. With unemployment holding near 4.2% and wage growth moderating to around 3.0-3.5% year-over-year, traders price the labor market as cooling gradually amid low hiring and firing rates, though resilient private-sector readings and sector gains in health care and trade support higher outcomes. The closely matched probabilities across 25k-100k+ ranges reflect this balance, with the report's revisions and unemployment rate serving as key swing factors for resolution.
Regels
This market will resolve according to the change in the total nonfarm payroll employment reported by the BLS "Employment Situation Summary" for October 2026, scheduled to be released on November 6, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month. The BLS "Employment Situation Summary" may be found here: https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htm