- Will the 5-year Treasury yield hit 4.90% before 2027?34¢34%
- Will the 5-year Treasury yield hit 5.00% before 2027?35¢35%
- Will the 5-year Treasury yield hit 5.05% before 2027?32¢32%
- Will the 5-year Treasury yield hit 5.10% before 2027?16¢16%
- Will the 5-year Treasury yield hit 5.15% before 2027?15¢15%
- Will the 5-year Treasury yield hit 5.25% before 2027?9¢9%
- 30%33,5%4.90%$ 17,7K vol.
- 7%34,5%5.00%$ 20,5K vol.
- 4%31,5%5.05%$ 21,4K vol.
- 12%15,7%5.10%$ 93,9K vol.
- 15%5.15%$ 7,7K vol.
- 2%9%5.25%$ 68,7K vol.
Recent inflation readings above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, combined with resilient economic growth and a tight labor market, have anchored expectations for the 5-year Treasury yield. The benchmark stood near 4.59% as of November 5, 2026, after reaching a 2026 high of 5.06% in early October amid energy price pressures and stronger-than-anticipated price data. The Fed raised its policy rate to the 3.75–4.00% range in September and held steady in October, signaling further tightening may be needed; markets now price a high probability of an additional hike by year-end. October nonfarm payrolls due November 6 and the December FOMC meeting represent near-term catalysts that could shift rate-path expectations and influence term premia. Midterm election results favoring divided government may moderate fiscal supply pressures but have yet to materially alter yield dynamics.
Regels
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).