- Will the 2-year Treasury yield hit 4.75% before 2027?96¢96%
- Will the 2-year Treasury yield hit 4.80% before 2027?96¢96%
- Will the 2-year Treasury yield hit 4.85% before 2027?86¢86%
- Will the 2-year Treasury yield hit 4.90% before 2027?77¢77%
- Will the 2-year Treasury yield hit 5.00% before 2027?31¢31%
- Will the 2-year Treasury yield hit 5.10% before 2027?15¢15%
- Will the 2-year Treasury yield hit 5.20% before 2027?6¢6%
- Will the 2-year Treasury yield hit 5.30% before 2027?3¢3%
- Will the 2-year Treasury yield hit 5.40% before 2027?4¢4%
- Will the 2-year Treasury yield hit 5.50% before 2027?4¢4%
- Will the 2-year Treasury yield hit 5.65% before 2027?4¢4%
- 4%96,3%4.75%$ 3,1K vol.
- 26%95,5%4.80%$ 4,1K vol.
- 27%86%4.85%$ 2,7K vol.
- 28%77%4.90%$ 7K vol.
- 8%31%5.00%$ 3,6K vol.
- 2%15%5.10%$ 5K vol.
- 2%5,8%5.20%$ 2,2K vol.
- 2,9%5.30%$ 4,8K vol.
- 4%5.40%$ 3,4K vol.
- 4,1%5.50%$ 5,4K vol.
- 4,2%5.65%$ 1,4K vol.
Recent hotter-than-expected October CPI data, with headline inflation at 0.4% and core at 0.3% month-over-month, have driven the 2-year Treasury yield to 4.73-4.75% as of November 10, 2026, reflecting trader consensus on a firmer near-term Fed policy path. Fed Governor Christopher Waller's comments favoring a potential 50 basis point December hike if readings remain elevated have reinforced this repricing, with futures now assigning substantial probability to at least a 25 basis point increase at the December 8-9 FOMC meeting. Persistent services and shelter inflation, combined with resilient growth and elevated Treasury supply, support upward pressure on front-end yields, while the November 13 PPI release and upcoming employment data represent key near-term catalysts that could shift market-implied odds for the yield's peak before year-end.
Regels
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 2-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date from market creation to December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 2-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for the final business day of 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for the final business day of 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "2 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).