- Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.3% before 2027?15¢15%
- Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.4% before 2027?7¢7%
- Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.5% before 2027?5¢5%
- Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.7% before 2027?4¢4%
- Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 6.0% before 2027?1¢1%
- 5%15%5.3%$ 2,3K vol.
- 1%6,5%5.4%$ 92,7K vol.
- 2%4,9%5.5%$ 242K vol.
- 4,4%5.7%$ 130,4K vol.
- 1%1,1%6.0%$ 120,6K vol.
Strong U.S. growth and persistent inflation pressures have driven the 10-year Treasury yield to peaks above 5.3% in early October 2026 before easing to around 4.84% as of November 6. Third-quarter GDP expanded at a 3.4% annualized rate with robust consumer spending, while September headline CPI reached 3.7% amid elevated energy prices and core readings near 2.6%. The Federal Reserve held the funds rate at 3.75-4.00% in October after a September hike, with the median dot plot at 4.1% through 2027 and markets assigning roughly 68-80% odds of a December move. Elevated fiscal deficits, Treasury supply, and term premium expansion amid AI-related borrowing have reinforced upward pressure on longer yields, though recent equity weakness triggered safe-haven demand. Key near-term catalysts include November CPI and employment data plus the December FOMC meeting.
Regels
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for all days in the specified period. If data is not available for all days in the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) of the end of that period, this market will resolve based on the available data at that time. The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).