- Will Morena win the most seats in the 2027 Guerrero Congress election?94¢94%
- Will PRI win the most seats in the 2027 Guerrero Congress election?3¢3%
- Will MC win the most seats in the 2027 Guerrero Congress election?2¢2%
- Will PVEM win the most seats in the 2027 Guerrero Congress election?2¢2%
- Will PT win the most seats in the 2027 Guerrero Congress election?2¢2%
- Will PAN win the most seats in the 2027 Guerrero Congress election?1¢1%
8%93,5%Morena$ 8,4K vol.
8%3%PRI$ 405 vol.
1%2,3%MC$ 592,5 vol.
3%2,2%PVEM$ 316,2 vol.
1%2%PT$ 701,9 vol.
1,5%PAN$ 264,4 vol.
Morena holds a commanding position in the Guerrero state congress election market due to its strong performance in the 2024 state legislative contests, where it secured the largest bloc of seats, combined with its control of the governorship and consistent polling leads for the 2027 cycle. Recent surveys show the party capturing around 43-50% voter preference statewide, reflecting broad support across key districts amid limited opposition cohesion. Trader consensus reflects these structural advantages in a state where Morena has consolidated legislative influence since 2018. A major scandal, sharp economic downturn, or unified opposition alliance could narrow the gap, though no such developments have emerged in the past month to shift current implied probabilities.
Regels
Legislative elections to elect the 46 members of the Congress of the State of Guerrero are scheduled to take place on June 6, 2027. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Congress of the State of Guerrero as a result of this election. Parties will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received by each party's list in the proportional representation vote, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party names. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. Seats will be attributed to the political party under which each elected deputy is officially registered in the final results published by the Instituto Electoral y de Participación Ciudadana del Estado de Guerrero. For district (mayoría relativa) seats won by a coalition or common candidacy, the seat will count toward the party to which the elected deputy is assigned in the official results, pursuant to the coalition agreement registered with the Instituto Electoral y de Participación Ciudadana del Estado de Guerrero, and not toward the coalition as a whole. Proportional representation seats will count toward the party to which they are allocated. Subsequent changes in party affiliation or parliamentary-group membership will not be considered. If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of the elections, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official results as reported by the governments of Guerrero and Mexico, including the Instituto Electoral y de Participación Ciudadana del Estado de Guerrero (https://www.iepcgro.mx/).