- Gemini Carbon released by November 6, 2026?2¢2%
- Gemini Carbon released by November 9, 2026?5¢5%
- Gemini Carbon released by November 11, 2026?64¢64%
- Gemini Carbon released by November 13, 2026?82¢82%
- Gemini Carbon released by November 15, 2026?83¢83%
- Gemini Carbon released by November 30, 2026?98¢98%
- Gemini Carbon released by December 31, 2026?98¢98%
- 1%1,8%November 6$ 23,5K vol.
- 2%5,1%November 9$ 26,6K vol.
- 7%63,5%November 11$ 36,1K vol.
- 1%82%November 13$ 27,2K vol.
- 1%82,5%November 15$ 52,9K vol.
- 97,8%November 30$ 32,1K vol.
- 98,5%December 31$ 18,1K vol.
Google announced Gemini 4 Carbon on October 28, 2026, as its strongest frontier large language model with state-of-the-art results in cybersecurity benchmarks (SEC-bench Pro at 88.2%, ExploitGym at 54.8%) and long-horizon agentic coding tasks, topping the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index v5.0 at 59. The model follows Gemini 4 Argon by two weeks and edges rivals like Claude Opus 5.5 and GPT-6 Astra, reflecting Google DeepMind’s accelerated iteration pace. Access remains limited to vetted cyber defenders through the Fairwind Program while guardrails undergo further testing, with broader developer, business, and consumer availability via API and product surfaces targeted “as soon as possible.” Traders price high odds for a mid-November public release window based on Argon’s 13-day timeline to paid access, though the deliberate phased approach introduces some uncertainty around exact timing.
Regels
On October 9, 2026, Business Insider reported that Google employees were internally testing a Gemini 4 model codenamed "Carbon," separate from the checkpoint later released as Gemini 4 Argon (https://www.businessinsider.com/google-employees-test-new-gemini-4-model-argon-barium-carbon-2026-10). This market will resolve to "Yes" if Google releases "Carbon" or a model confirmed to be the same model referenced in the report described above, and that model is made available to the general public by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying model must be a Google AI model named "Carbon" (including variants or successor branding such as Gemini Carbon, Gemini 4 Carbon, or similar naming) or be confirmed to be the same model referenced in the report by Google or by a consensus of credible reporting. A model released under any other name, including a new Gemini model (e.g., Gemini 4.1) or an update to Gemini 4 Argon (including an update released under Argon's existing name or model identifier), will qualify only if it is confirmed by the listed date to be the same model previously codenamed "Carbon". Models merely derived from, distilled from, or incorporating improvements from Carbon will not qualify unless confirmed to be the same model. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.