- EU country blames Russia for new sabotage attack by November 30?98¢98%
- EU country blames Russia for new sabotage attack by December 31?99¢99%
- 64%98,1%November 30$ 10,7K vol.
- 27%98,6%December 31$ 10,7K vol.
Recent surges in suspected Russian hybrid operations, including arson at defense firms, cyberattacks disrupting supermarket refrigeration across multiple EU states, and bomb threats targeting airports and media outlets, have driven public attributions by countries like Estonia and Poland. On November 9, Estonia’s interior minister described these acts as state-sponsored terrorism rather than hybrid incidents, citing an August attack on a drone manufacturer and recent infrastructure disruptions. Poland followed on November 10 by charging two Ukrainians with espionage and sabotage on Russian orders, including vehicle fires intended to stoke anti-Ukrainian sentiment. These developments reflect a broader pattern of targeting critical infrastructure and Ukraine support networks, with traders assessing probabilities based on attribution timelines, intelligence confirmations, and potential EU or NATO responses. Upcoming events such as further investigations or diplomatic summits could shift outcomes if new incidents surface or attributions are delayed.
Regels
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the national government of any European Union member state officially attributes a qualifying attack on its territory to Russia between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying attack is an act of sabotage or arson, the placement or detonation of an explosive or incendiary device, or a physical attack on persons or property, carried out within the territory of an EU member state on or after September 1, 2026. The following will not qualify: cyber operations; electronic interference such as GPS jamming or spoofing; espionage, surveillance, or reconnaissance; disinformation or influence operations; violations of airspace or territorial waters; drones, missiles, or other munitions launched by Russian armed forces, whether or not they are intercepted; and threats or plots that were not carried out. A qualifying attribution is a public statement by an authorized representative of the relevant country acting in an official capacity stating that the attack was carried out, ordered, or directed by the Russian state, including its armed forces or intelligence services, or by persons acting on their instructions. Criminal charges filed by that state’s prosecutors alleging that the attack was carried out on behalf of the aforementioned Russian state services will also qualify. Statements describing Russian involvement as suspected, likely, probable, or not ruled out, or stating only that an attack bears the hallmarks of or is consistent with Russian activity, will not qualify. Statements by anonymous or unnamed officials, by governments of other countries, or by EU or NATO institutions will not qualify on their own. Attributions made before market creation, and re-attributions regarding previously attributed attacks, will not qualify. Once a qualifying attribution is made, this market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of any later retraction, Russian denial, or the outcome of legal proceedings. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements and publications from the government of the relevant EU member state; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.