- Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 1.0% and 2.0%?<1¢<1%
- Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 2.0% and 3.0%?<1¢<1%
- Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 3.0% and 4.0%?1¢1%
- Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 4.0% and 5.0%?96¢96%
- Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 5.0% and 6.0%?2¢2%
- Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 6.0% and 7.0%?<1¢<1%
- Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be 9% or higher?<1¢<1%
- 0,5%1.0–2.0%$ 76,7K vol.
- 0,2%2.0–3.0%$ 46,8K vol.
- 1,1%3.0–4.0%$ 87,9K vol.
- 96,2%4.0–5.0%$ 249,9K vol.
- 1,7%5.0–6.0%$ 88,1K vol.
- 0,2%6.0-7.0%$ 93,8K vol.
- 0,3%9.0%+$ 117,7K vol.
China’s official 2026 GDP target of 4.5–5.0 percent anchors trader expectations, with year-to-date growth reaching 4.6 percent after Q3 expanded 4.5 percent year-on-year. Resilient high-tech exports in AI, electric vehicles, and green technology have offset persistent weakness in domestic consumption and a prolonged property-sector adjustment. Major forecasters including the IMF, World Bank, and Goldman Sachs project full-year expansion near 4.5–4.6 percent, supported by targeted fiscal measures and local-government financing deployed in late 2026. This positioning leaves limited room for outcomes outside the 4.0–5.0 percent interval unless major export disruptions, sharper energy-price shocks, or deeper domestic-demand shortfalls materialize before year-end.
Regels
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027. The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter. Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.