- Will the Bank of England decrease the Bank Rate by 50+ bps at the February meeting?1¢1%
- Will the Bank of England decrease the Bank Rate by 25 bps at the February meeting?3¢3%
- Will the Bank of England make no change to the Bank Rate at the February meeting?30¢30%
- Will the Bank of England increase the Bank Rate by 25 bps at the February meeting?69¢69%
- Will the Bank of England increase the Bank Rate by 50+ bps at the February meeting?<1¢<1%
- 1%1,1%50+ bps decrease$ 1,5K vol.
- 2,5%25 bps decrease$ 1,2K vol.
- 11%29,5%No Change$ 3,9K vol.
- 11%68,5%25 bps increase$ 12,6K vol.
- 0,2%50+ bps increase$ 949,2 vol.
Elevated energy prices amid the ongoing Middle East conflict have pushed UK CPI inflation to 3.5% in September and prompted the Bank of England to raise Bank Rate by 25 basis points to 4% at its November 5 meeting, with an 8-1 vote and one member favoring a 50-basis-point move. Market-implied odds of 78.5% for another 25-basis-point increase at the February 4, 2027, Monetary Policy Report meeting reflect trader consensus on further tightening to contain second-round effects, supported by recent analyst forecasts from Goldman Sachs and Standard Chartered. Resilient economic data and pipeline inflationary pressures from higher utility and fuel costs reinforce this positioning, while the 16% probability of no change accounts for potential de-escalation or contained pass-through. The December 17 decision and upcoming inflation releases remain key near-term catalysts.
Regels
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the Bank Rate resulting from the February 2027 meeting of the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting. The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of England, including the statement or release from its February 2027 Monetary Policy Committee meeting, scheduled for February 4, 2027, as listed on the official Bank of England calendar (https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy/upcoming-mpc-dates). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of England's February 2027 Monetary Policy Committee meeting with relevant data is issued. If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound. If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size. If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.