- Will the Republican Party win the AZ-02 House seat?96¢96%
- Will the Democratic Party win the AZ-02 House seat?4¢4%
27%96%Eli Crane (R)$ 142K vol.
26%4,1%Jonathan Nez (D)$ 184,4K vol.
Eli Crane maintains a commanding lead in Arizona’s 2nd Congressional District vote count following the November 3, 2026, election, consistent with the district’s Republican tilt and his 9-point victory margin in 2024. As the incumbent representing a largely rural area spanning northern and eastern Arizona, including multiple tribal nations, Crane benefits from name recognition and established fundraising advantages. Recent tallies show him ahead by roughly 1 percentage point with most precincts reported, though the race remains uncalled pending final certification. Forecasters rated the contest Lean Republican entering Election Day. A narrow final margin could trigger an automatic recount under state law or invite legal challenges, but the current trajectory and historical patterns in the district underpin trader consensus favoring Crane’s reelection.
Regels
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).