- Any Brazil STF Justice removed by impeachment before 2027?3¢3%
The high trader consensus against any STF justice facing successful impeachment before 2027 stems primarily from entrenched procedural barriers and Senate leadership dynamics. Over 100 pending petitions, many targeting Alexandre de Moraes amid Banco Master investigations, remain stalled because Senate President Davi Alcolumbre controls the agenda and has declined to advance them. A December 2025 liminar by Gilmar Mendes raised the threshold to two-thirds of senators (54 votes) for opening proceedings and limited initiators, a ruling still awaiting full STF review. No justice has ever been removed this way, and mandatory retirement at 75 plus Lula administration influence further reduce near-term odds. A February 2027 Senate leadership vote or reversal of the liminar could alter trajectories, yet sustained evidence thresholds and institutional resistance keep removal improbable in the current window.
Regels
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any justice of the Brazil Supreme Federal Court (STF) is permanently removed from the court as a result of impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Justices leaving the court due to term limits, voluntary resignation, or any other reason not resulting from impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility will not count. Impeachments, trials for crimes of responsibility, suspensions, or other procedural measures will not alone suffice to resolve this market if they do not result in the permanent removal of a justice from the Brazil Supreme Federal Court. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.