- Will Microsoft be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?69¢69%
- Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?19¢19%
- Will NVIDIA be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?8¢8%
- Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?3¢3%
- Will Amazon be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?2¢2%
- Will SpaceX be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?<1¢<1%
- Will Tesla be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?<1¢<1%
- Will Saudi Aramco be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?<1¢<1%
- Will Broadcom be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?<1¢<1%
5%68,5%Microsoft$ 33K vol.
6%19%Alphabet$ 47,5K vol.
1%7,9%NVIDIA$ 21K vol.
2,9%Apple$ 25,7K vol.
2,2%Amazon$ 8,6K vol.
0,5%SpaceX$ 14,3K vol.
Microsoft's leading 65% implied probability for third-largest market cap by end-2026 stems from its recent Azure cloud revenue surge of 48% year-over-year, beating expectations, alongside strong AI infrastructure demand and post-election investor enthusiasm for cloud computing. This positions the company ahead of NVIDIA (17.2%), whose stock has shown volatility amid semiconductor cycles, and Alphabet (12.5%), which trails in cloud momentum. With only weeks until resolution and current rankings showing Microsoft at roughly $4.1 trillion behind Apple and NVIDIA, sustained large language model adoption and enterprise AI spending reinforce trader consensus around Microsoft's edge, though near-term hardware or regulatory shifts could still influence final standings.
Regels
This market will resolve to the third-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31, 2026, as of market close. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.