- Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?96¢96%
- Will Marine Le Pen be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?90¢90%
- Will Nathalie Arthaud be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?86¢86%
- Will David Lisnard be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?84¢84%
- Will Raphaël Glucksmann be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?82¢82%
- Will Édouard Philippe be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?79¢79%
- Will Éric Zemmour be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?70¢70%
- Will Fabien Roussel be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?65¢65%
- Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?63¢63%
- Will Bruno Retailleau be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?40¢40%
- Will Dominique de Villepin be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?38¢38%
- Will François Hollande be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?27¢27%
96,3%Jean-Luc Mélenchon$ 33,9K vol.
89,5%Marine Le Pen$ 40,4K vol.
86%Nathalie Arthaud$ 8,6K vol.
1%83,5%David Lisnard$ 34,5K vol.
82%Raphaël Glucksmann$ 31,7K vol.
78,5%Édouard Philippe$ 24,1K vol.
1%69,5%Éric Zemmour$ 21,8K vol.
9%64,5%Fabien Roussel$ 6,1K vol.
63%Nicolas Dupont-Aignan$ 3,7K vol.
2%40%Bruno Retailleau$ 21,3K vol.
38%Dominique de Villepin$ 24,6K vol.
27%François Hollande$ 47,9K vol.
Emmanuel Macron’s ineligibility for a third consecutive term under France’s constitutional limit opens the 2027 contest, scheduled for the first round on 18 April and a potential runoff on 2 May. Recent polling averages show Marine Le Pen maintaining a clear lead near 35 percent in the opening round after a Paris appeals court reduced her prior ineligibility period, allowing her confirmed candidacy while her final appeal remains pending before the Court of Cassation. Jean-Luc Mélenchon has released a detailed platform emphasizing retirement at 60 and confrontation with EU institutions, sustaining support around 17 percent amid a fragmented left that abandoned a unified primary. On the center-right, Édouard Philippe and Gabriel Attal continue positioning, while Raphaël Glucksmann secured the Socialist-led primary nomination in October. Official candidate filings close in March 2027, with party endorsements, legal rulings, and coalition negotiations likely determining the final field.
Regels
The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held in April 2027. Prior to the election, the French Constitutional Council is expected to publish the official list of candidates to be included on the ballot for the first round of this election. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual is included on the official candidate list for the first round of the 2027 French presidential election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If no such candidate list is published prior to the election, this market will resolve based on which candidates actually appear on the ballot when the election takes place. If no list is published and the specified election does not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official candidate list published by the French Constitutional Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.