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This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of the United States, any member of the Cabinet of the United States, any member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, or any US federal agency definitively states that extraterrestrial life or technology exists by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Ongoing declassifications under the Trump administration’s PURSUE program and related executive actions have produced multiple batches of UAP files since May 2026, alongside NDA waivers for whistleblowers and congressional efforts like the Burlison amendment to establish a formal records review process. Pentagon and AARO reports covering hundreds of cases continue to attribute resolved incidents to mundane sources such as drones, balloons, or aircraft, with no verified evidence of extraterrestrial life or technology presented. Whistleblower assertions regarding non-human biologics or crash retrievals remain unconfirmed by official sources. These developments sustain trader interest in disclosure momentum while the strict requirement for a definitive statement from the president, cabinet, Joint Chiefs, or a federal agency keeps implied probabilities low ahead of potential further releases or legislative votes through year-end.