- 러시아가 2026년 12월 31일까지 라만을 점령할까요?35¢
- 러시아가 2026년 9월 30일까지 라이만을 점령할까요?8¢
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the Lyman railroad station located on Vulytsya Pryvokzalʹna by December 31, 2025, at 11:59 PM ET. The railroad station will be considered captured if any part of the train station icon is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”. If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. Once Russia captures the railroad station, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. Train Station Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/lyman+train+station+zoom.png Train Station Location in Lyman: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/lyman+train+station.jpeg Lyman Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/lyman.jpeg Location on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/zeVSXaeDH93mF2WPA The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
Russian forces remain highly active on the Lyman axis in Donetsk Oblast but have made no confirmed major advances into the city itself through late August 2026, relying instead on small infantry infiltration attempts that Ukrainian units have repeatedly detected and neutralized due to logistical strains. Ukrainian 3rd Army Corps counterattacks north of Lyman, ongoing since May under operational security, have blunted Russian salients and eased pressure toward Sloviansk and Kramatorsk, the core of the Donbas fortress belt. ISW assessments indicate Russian presence inside Lyman remains minimal despite periodic claims, while geolocated Ukrainian gains southwest of the city and east of Dibrova continue. Putin’s directive to complete Donetsk Oblast operations by year-end keeps the sector a priority, though terrain, river barriers, and Ukrainian defensive intensity have slowed Russian momentum on this front.