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On August 1, 2026, OpenAI publicly disclosed "Astra," describing an internal version of Astra as its "next major model." You can read more about that here: https://openai.com/index/ten-advances-in-mathematics/. This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which OpenAI's "Astra" model, or a model confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement described above, is made available to the general public. A qualifying model must be named "Astra" (including variants or successor branding such as Astra 1, Astra 6, Astra X, GPT-6 Astra, or similar naming or rebranded versions) or be confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement by OpenAI or by a consensus of credible reporting. Products labeled as GPT-5.7, GPT-6, or similar will only count if they are confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement. For this market to resolve according to a given date, the qualifying model (as defined above) must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
OpenAI’s September 1 blog post on Astra’s “critical” cybersecurity capabilities—its first model to cross that Preparedness Framework threshold by autonomously finding and exploiting zero-days—has driven the market’s strong tilt toward an early-September release. After pausing frontier training runs following the Hugging Face incident, OpenAI restarted key workloads on August 28 and added refusal training, chain-of-thought monitoring, and tiered access that limits advanced cyber tools to vetted Daybreak Blue partners at launch. The company’s explicit statement that Astra will be “available soon” with a system card at release has reinforced trader expectations of imminent availability, while the absence of any further announced delays or regulatory hurdles keeps probabilities concentrated on September 3.