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This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Anthropic's recent Claude 5-series releases, especially Opus 5 in late July 2026, have driven the 91% market-implied odds by topping independent benchmarks such as the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index and various Arena leaderboards with scores around 63, ahead of OpenAI's GPT-5.6 variants. Multiple Anthropic models including Fable 5 and Mythos 5 demonstrate leading capabilities in reasoning, coding, and agentic tasks while maintaining strong alignment metrics. Traders see limited near-term risk of displacement before end-September, given the absence of confirmed flagship launches from competitors. A surprise high-performing release from OpenAI or Google could still shift sentiment if it demonstrates clear gains on key evaluations.