- 2026년 9월 말에 Anthropic이 최고의 AI 모델을 보유하게 될까요?100¢100%
- 2026년 9월 말에 OpenAI가 최고의 AI 모델을 보유하게 될까요?0¢0%
- 2026년 9월 말에 메타가 최고의 AI 모델을 가질까요?0¢0%
- 2026년 9월 말에 구글이 최고의 AI 모델을 보유하게 될까요?0¢0%
- SpaceXAI가 2026년 9월 말에 최고의 AI 모델을 보유하게 될까요?0¢0%
- 딥시크가 2026년 9월 말에 최고의 AI 모델을 보유하게 될까요?0¢0%
- 2026년 9월 말에 알리바바가 최고의 AI 모델을 보유하게 될까요?0¢0%
- Z.ai는 2026년 9월 말에 최고의 AI 모델을 보유하게 될까요?0¢0%
- ByteDance가 2026년 9월 말에 최고의 AI 모델을 보유하게 될까요?0¢0%
- 2026년 9월 말에 문샷이 최고의 AI 모델을 가지게 될까요?0¢0%
- 2026년 9월 말에 텐센트가 최고의 AI 모델을 보유하게 될까요?0¢0%
- 2026년 9월 말에 바이두가 최고의 AI 모델을 보유하게 될까요?0¢0%
Anthropic's recent frontier releases, including Claude Opus 5.5 and Fable 5.1, have driven overwhelming trader consensus by topping major benchmarks in coding, agentic tasks, and overall intelligence as of late September 2026. These large language models demonstrate clear leads on leaderboards like BenchLM and Artificial Analysis, outpacing competitors through superior performance in complex workflows and knowledge work. Multiple Anthropic variants occupy top leaderboard positions, reinforcing market-implied odds near 100%. Realistic challenges include OpenAI's GPT-6.1 Sol or Google's latest Gemini updates rapidly closing gaps on fresh evaluations, or unexpected capability jumps from other labs that could shift benchmark dominance before month-end resolution.
규칙
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".