- 2026년에 새로운 팬데믹이 발생할까요?2¢2%
Strong surveillance from the CDC and WHO shows respiratory illness activity, including COVID-19, remaining low nationally with declining cases and no novel pathogen achieving sustained global transmission as of early November 2026. Current variants such as XFG and BA.3.2 are classified as low-risk variants under monitoring, with vaccines retaining effectiveness against severe outcomes and outbreaks like Ebola in the DRC staying regionally contained rather than escalating to epidemic thresholds. This evidence underpins the 97.9% market-implied probability of no new pandemic, reflecting trader consensus on endemic patterns and historical rarity of rapid global spread. Realistic shifts could still arise from an immune-evasive strain emerging with high transmissibility or unexpected escalation of localized threats beyond containment before year-end.
규칙
세계보건기구(WHO)가 2026년 1월 1일부터 2026년 12월 31일 오후 11:59 ET 사이에 어떤 질병이든 팬데믹으로 선언하면 이 시장은 "예"로 정산됩니다. 그렇지 않으면 이 마켓은 "아니오"로 판정됩니다. 정산 출처는 세계보건기구의 공식 발표입니다.
기계 번역입니다. 분쟁 시 원문이 우선합니다.