- 2026년 말에 이란에 국가원수가 없을까요?4¢
- 2026년 말에 무함마드 미르바키리가 이란의 국가원수가 될까요?<1¢
- 사데흐 라리자니가 2026년 말에 이란의 국가원수가 될까요?<1¢
- 모즈타바 하메네이가 2026년 말에 이란의 국가원수가 될까요?82¢
- 하산 호메이니가 2026년 말까지 이란의 국가원수가 될까요?<1¢
- 레자 팔라비가 2026년 말에 이란의 국가원수가 될까요?3¢
- 하산 샤리아트마다리가 2026년 말에 이란의 국가 원수가 될까요?<1¢
- 2026년 말에 마르얌 라자비가 이란의 국가원수가 될까요?<1¢
- 2026년 말에 마수드 라자비가 이란의 국가원수가 될까요?<1¢
- 2026년 말에 세예드 호세인 무사비안이 이란의 국가 원수가 될 것인가요?<1¢
- 2026년 말에 레자 피르자데가 이란의 국가 원수가 될까요?<1¢
- 2026년 말에 나비드 쇼말리가 이란의 국가원수가 될까요?<1¢
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
Mojtaba Khamenei’s commanding 82.2% market share reflects his March 2026 selection by the Assembly of Experts as Supreme Leader after Ali Khamenei’s assassination in late-February U.S.-Israeli strikes that opened the 2026 Iran war. Backed by the IRGC and his father’s clerical network, he secured the required two-thirds vote amid wartime consolidation, outpacing alternatives such as Alireza Arafi or Hassan Khomeini. Subsequent reports of Mojtaba’s injuries and reduced public role have prompted committee-based decision-making involving President Pezeshkian and security figures, yet no formal leadership change has occurred. Traders price continuity through year-end because institutional structures and recent precedent favor the sitting leader absent a new Assembly vote or major upheaval before December 2026. Lower-probability outcomes like Reza Pahlavi remain sidelined by the regime’s demonstrated resilience.