- 신인민당(NL)이 다음 러시아 국가두마 선거에서 35석 미만을 획득할까요?93¢
- New People(NL)이 다음 러시아 국가두마 선거에서 35~44석을 차지할까요?3¢
- 새로운 사람들(NL)이 다음 러시아 국가두마 선거에서 45석에서 54석 사이를 차지할까요?2¢
- 뉴 피플(NL)이 다음 러시아 하원 선거에서 55~64석을 획득할까요?2¢
- New People (NL)이 다음 러시아 국가 두마 선거에서 65~74석을 차지할까요?2¢
- New People(NL)이 다음 러시아 국가두마 선거에서 75~84석을 차지할까요?2¢
- 다음 러시아 국가두마 선거에서 신인민당(NL)이 85석 이상을 획득할까요?2¢
Legislative elections are scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by New People (NL) in the State Duma as a result of the next Russian legislative election. If results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
New People, a systemic opposition party currently holding 15 Duma seats, faces structural limits in Russia's mixed electoral system ahead of the 18–20 September vote. Kremlin-managed outcomes typically allocate modest representation to approved parties to preserve pluralism without threatening United Russia dominance, regardless of polling that has shown the party at 12–15 percent in some surveys. Recent candidate list approvals and regional activity have not altered this pattern, as single-member districts and proportional allocation remain subject to administrative influence. The market's heavy weighting toward under 35 seats reflects this precedent and the narrow window for genuine expansion. Shifts could occur only through an abrupt change in official strategy or unforeseen disruptions to the controlled process.