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The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026. For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if: • They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat • They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat • They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus) Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the Senate may qualify for this market. This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
As of early September 2026, seven Republican senators whose terms end that year—Steve Daines, Joni Ernst, Thom Tillis, Mitch McConnell, Cynthia Lummis, Tommy Tuberville, and Alan Armstrong—have publicly announced they will not seek re-election, either by retiring or pursuing other offices such as governor. This total aligns precisely with the market's near-certain outcome at 100 percent, reflecting the completion of most state filing deadlines and the absence of further retirement announcements in recent months. Primary defeats for two additional Republican incumbents do not alter the count of those who chose not to run. Late reversals of announced plans or unforeseen vacancies remain possible but improbable given the advanced stage of the cycle and historical patterns of Senate retirements.