- 프랑스 상원 선거 이후 공화당이 두 번째로 많은 의석을 차지할까요?1¢
- 프랑스 상원 선거 후 SER가 두 번째로 많은 의석을 차지할까요?48¢
- 프랑스 상원 선거 이후 유니옹 상트리스트가 두 번째로 많은 의석을 차지하게 될까요?40¢
The 2026 French Senate election is scheduled for September 27, 2026, renewing série 2 — 178 of the Senate's 348 seats. The new senators are currently scheduled to take office on October 1, 2026, and the deadline for submitting new political-group membership lists and political declarations is currently set for October 5, 2026, at 4:00 PM CEST. This market will resolve according to which of the following three Senate groups holds the second-most French Senate seats as of October 12, 2026, 4:00 PM CEST: the Groupe Les Républicains, the Groupe Socialiste, Écologiste et Républicain (SER), or the Groupe Union Centriste. The seat count for each group will be its total membership as published by the French Senate (senat.fr), counting members (membres), related (apparentés), and affiliated (rattachés). A group will qualify as one of the three listed groups if it satisfies at least one of the following: - Its official name includes the listed group's name or a clear variant thereof; - Its political declaration published in the Official Journal (Journal Officiel) of France identifies it as a continuation of the listed group; or - It is publicly recognized as the continuation of the listed group, and this characterization is confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting. A group that changes its name will continue to qualify if it meets at least one of the criteria above. If two of the listed groups merge with each other, the merged group will be treated as the listed group that held more seats before the September 27, 2026 election, and the other listed group will be treated as holding no seats. If a listed group ceases to exist, it will be treated as holding no seats. Groups will be primarily ranked by number of seats on October 12, 2026. If two or more groups are tied on seat count, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the groups' listed names. This market will resolve to the group that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. The administrative meeting of senators not appearing on the list of any group (RASNAG) will not qualify as a group for the purposes of this market. If the groups' composition is not officially published, as of October 12, 2026, 4:00 PM CEST, this market will resolve to the group's listed name that comes second in alphabetical order. The resolution source for this market will be publications of the French Senate (senat.fr) and the Official Journal of France, and a consensus of credible reporting.
The French Senate election for second-most seats stays tightly contested between SER and Union Centriste, as the indirect electoral college of local officials produces narrow margins shaped by municipal and departmental alliances after the 2024 national legislative fragmentation. Neither bloc has consolidated decisive regional strength, with voter turnout among grand electors and cross-party deals remaining fluid. Les Républicains hold minimal positioning due to weaker recent local results. Scheduled finalization of the electoral college lists and any pre-vote coalition shifts could widen the gap before the September balloting concludes.