- 트럼프가 9월 30일까지 대통령직에서 물러나나요?0¢0%
Trump assumed the presidency on January 20, 2025, after the 2024 election, with his term structured to run through January 2029 under standard constitutional timelines. No impeachment resolution advanced through the House with sufficient support for Senate conviction, no invocation of the 25th Amendment occurred via the vice president and cabinet, and no resignation or incapacity events altered succession. Institutional checks, including congressional composition after the 2026 midterms, have not produced the supermajorities or procedural triggers needed for removal by the September 30 deadline. Trader consensus at 100% reflects this lack of catalytic developments in the prior months. Late-breaking health incidents, unforeseen disqualifying rulings, or rapid congressional shifts remain the narrow pathways that could theoretically reopen the outcome despite the elapsed date.
규칙
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time between market creation and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count. A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.