브라질·매크로 지표·+212월 브라질 은행의 결정?

• 브라질은행은 12월 회의에서 셀릭 금리 목표를 50bp 이상 인상할까요?<1¢<1%
• 브라질 은행은 12월 회의에서 Selic 금리 목표를 25bp 인상할까요?1¢1%
• 브라질 중앙은행은 12월 회의에서 셀릭 금리 목표를 변경하지 않을까요?90¢90%
• 브라질 은행은 12월 회의에서 Selic 금리 목표를 25bp 인하할까요?7¢7%
• 브라질 은행은 12월 회의에서 셀리치 금리 목표를 50bp 이상 인하할까요?1¢1%

The Central Bank of Brazil’s November pause at the 13.75% Selic rate, following Lula’s reelection and amid rising inflation expectations, has anchored trader consensus at 90.5% odds for no change in December. Focus survey projections shifted to hold the benchmark through year-end as supply shocks—oil prices, El Niño effects, labor-rule changes, and real depreciation—lifted 2026-2027 IPCA forecasts above target while below-potential growth limited second-round risks. Minutes emphasized a high bar for hikes and the need for caution, with the rate viewed as substantially contractionary. A clear fiscal tightening signal or sharper slowdown could still open the door to a modest cut, though persistent price pressures make that unlikely near term.