- 2026년에 연준 금리 인하는 전혀 없을까요?87¢
- 2026년에 연방준비제도(Fed)가 금리 인하를 한 차례 단행할까요?10¢
- 2026년에 연준이 금리를 두 번 인하할까요?3¢
- 2026년에 연준 기준금리가 3번 인하될까요?<1¢
- 2026년에 미 연준이 4차례 금리 인하를 단행할까요?<1¢
- 2026년에 연준 금리 인하가 5번 일어날까요?<1¢
- 2026년에 연준이 6번 금리를 인하할까요?<1¢
- 2026년에 연준이 7번 금리 인하를 단행할까요?<1¢
- 2026년에 연준이 8번 금리 인하를 할까요?<1¢
- 2026년에 연준이 9번 금리 인하를 단행할까요?<1¢
- 2026년에 연준 기준금리 인하가 10번 일어날까요?<1¢
- 2026년에 연준 기준금리 11회 인하가 있을까요?<1¢
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting). Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions. For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each). This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question. Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut. The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Persistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target and a hawkish policy stance are anchoring trader expectations for zero federal funds rate cuts through the end of 2026. With the benchmark range held at 3.50–3.75% following the July FOMC meeting, core PCE inflation remains near 3.3–3.7% amid tariff pass-through, elevated energy costs from Middle East tensions, and AI-driven demand pressures. Recent minutes highlighted that many participants see tightening as likely necessary if inflation fails to moderate, while the labor market stays stable and growth continues. Market-implied odds reflect this consensus, pricing minimal easing probability as participants await clearer disinflation signals before any policy pivot. The September FOMC meeting and upcoming inflation releases will serve as key tests of whether these conditions persist.