- 9월 30일에 Bab el-Mandeb 해협을 통과하는 일평균 통과 횟수가 25회 미만일까요?49¢
- 9월 30일에 Bab el-Mandeb 해협을 하루 평균 25~29회 통과하는 선박이 있을까요?18¢
- 9월 30일에 바브엘만데브 해협을 하루 평균 30~34회 통과할 것으로 예상됩니까?15¢
- 9월 30일에 바브엘만데브 해협의 일일 평균 통과 횟수가 35회에서 39회 사이가 될까요?7¢
- 9월 30일 바브엘만데브 해협의 일일 평균 통과 횟수가 40회 이상이 될까요?5¢
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait that IMF Portwatch reports for September 30, 2026. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources. The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Ongoing Houthi threats and attacks targeting Red Sea shipping, including July 2026 strikes on Saudi-linked tankers and blockade announcements, represent the dominant driver behind the 49.3% implied probability for fewer than 25 daily transits through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait by end-September. Recent AIS and tracking data show traffic already suppressed to roughly 40-60 vessels per day in late August, down sharply from 2023 baselines near 70, with tanker volumes hit hardest amid elevated war-risk premiums and selective rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope. This positions the sub-25 bin as the leading outcome in aggregated trader sentiment, reflecting expectations that persistent security risks and selective carrier pullbacks will sustain or deepen the contraction through the month-end window.