開始日時
2025-05-28
終了日時
2025-12-31
24時間出来高
$2K
総出来高
$5.5M
- ロシアは2026年12月31日までにNATO加盟国に侵攻しますか？6¢
- ロシアは2026年9月30日までにNATO加盟国に侵攻しますか？<1¢
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of any NATO country between May 28 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by NATO member states or Russia as of May 28, 2025, will be considered the sovereign territory of those countries. Hybrid or “grey zone” operations conducted by unmarked personnel will qualify if they are confirmed to be Russian operatives and are intended to establish de facto control over territory, as occurred in Crimea (2014) or Donbas (2014–2022). The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.