- 北朝鮮は2027年より前に韓国へ侵攻するでしょうか？3¢3%
North Korea's recent border fortification efforts, missile tests, and statements from officials like Kim Yo-jong reflect heightened tensions and an arms buildup tied to its Russia partnership, yet these steps align with Pyongyang's long-standing policy of treating South Korea as a separate hostile state rather than preparations for a full-scale invasion. The 97.7% trader consensus on no invasion before 2027 draws from the Korean People's Army's focus on deterrence measures such as minefields and tactical assets, South Korea's defensive responses including warning shots, and the enduring U.S. security commitment that raises the costs of any large-scale crossing of the Military Demarcation Line. Historical patterns since the 1953 armistice show repeated provocations and tests without conventional assault. Realistic scenarios that could shift odds include unintended escalation from border incidents or major miscalculation during the ongoing standoff, though current developments indicate controlled friction below invasion thresholds.
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北朝鮮が2026年12月31日、23:59 ETまでに韓国の一部でも支配下に置くことを目的とした軍事攻勢を開始した場合、この市場は「はい」で決着します。それ以外の場合、この市場は「いいえ」で決着します。 この市場の決着の根拠となるのは、韓国、北朝鮮、国連、または国連安全保障理事会の常任理事国のいずれかによる公式確認ですが、信頼できる報道の一致した見解も使用されます。
機械翻訳です。解釈に相違がある場合は原文が優先されます。