- 共和党はアイオワ州とカンザス州で勝利し、アラスカ州、メイン州、ミシガン州、オハイオ州、テキサス州で敗北しますか？37¢37%
- 共和党はアラスカ、カンザス、メイン、ミシガン、オハイオ、テキサスで勝利し、アイオワで敗北しますか？37¢37%
- 共和党はアラスカ、アイオワ、ミシガン、オハイオ、テキサスで勝利し、カンザスとメインでは敗れるでしょうか？37¢37%
- 共和党はアラスカ、アイオワ、メイン、オハイオで勝利し、カンザス、ミシガン、テキサスで敗北しますか？37¢37%
- 共和党はアラスカ、メイン、ミシガン、テキサスで勝利し、アイオワ、カンザス、オハイオで敗れるでしょうか？37¢37%
- 共和党はカンザス州、ミシガン州、オハイオ州、テキサス州で勝利し、アラスカ州、アイオワ州、メイン州で敗北しますか？37¢37%
- 共和党はアラスカ、メイン、テキサスで勝利し、アイオワ、カンザス、ミシガン、オハイオで敗北しますか？37¢37%
- 共和党はアラスカ、ミシガン、オハイオで勝利し、アイオワ、カンザス、メイン、テキサスで敗北しますか？37¢37%
- 共和党はミシガン、オハイオ、テキサスで勝利し、アラスカ、アイオワ、カンザス、メインで敗北しますか？37¢37%
- 共和党はカンザス州とミシガン州で勝利し、アラスカ州、アイオワ州、メイン州、オハイオ州、テキサス州では敗北しますか？37¢37%
- 共和党はメイン州とミシガン州で勝利し、アラスカ州、アイオワ州、カンザス州、オハイオ州、テキサス州で敗北しますか？37¢37%
- 共和党がメイン州で勝利し、アラスカ、アイオワ、カンザス、ミシガン、オハイオ、テキサスで敗北しますか？37¢37%
Recent polling averages across the seven tossup Senate contests show margins of three points or less in most states, with Democrats holding narrow leads or ties in Alaska, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas while Iowa and Kansas remain virtual dead heats. This environment, shaped by a Democratic-leaning national generic ballot, economic concerns, and voter sentiment tied to the current administration, has produced high uncertainty about exactly which Republican-held seats will hold. Late-cycle shifts in individual races, turnout differentials in key demographics, and state-specific candidate dynamics keep outcomes interdependent yet unpredictable. Trader consensus therefore fragments across dozens of combinations rather than concentrating on any single set, reflecting the narrow path for Republicans to secure multiple victories amid closely contested fundamentals.
ルール
This market will resolve according to which of the United States Senate general elections in Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio (special election), and Texas, currently scheduled for November 3, 2026, are won by the Republican candidate, inclusive of any potential runoffs. Each listed outcome names the exact set of these states in which the Republican candidate wins. An outcome will resolve to "Yes" only if the Republican candidate wins every state it names and does not win any of the other states covered by this market. A state counts as not won by the Republican candidate if any other candidate wins it, including a Democratic, independent, or third-party candidate, or if its results cannot be determined by March 31, 2027. A candidate will be considered to represent the Republican Party by their ballot-listed affiliation or if they are the nominee of the Republican Party. Candidates who run as independents will not be considered to represent the Republican Party regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called the relevant elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.