- 蔣万安は次の台北市長選挙に勝つでしょうか？93¢
- シェン・プマは次の台北市長選挙で勝利するでしょうか？8¢
- 郭熙は次の台北市長選挙に勝つでしょうか？<1¢
Taiwanese local elections are scheduled to be held on November 28, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Mayor of Taipei as a result of this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder Mayors appointed before the election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known, or no candidate has been elected, by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Taiwanese government, specifically the Central Election Commission (https://db.cec.gov.tw/).
Chiang Wan-an’s commanding position as the Kuomintang incumbent stems from consistent polling leads of 25–40 points over DPP nominee Puma Shen, combined with approval ratings near 65 percent in a city that has favored KMT candidates in recent cycles. His renomination by the party and role in opposition initiatives have reinforced trader consensus around his reelection prospects on November 28. A minor controversy over his son’s participation in a city-funded exchange program emerged in early September but prompted no measurable shift in odds. Challenger scenarios remain limited to late-breaking developments such as major scandals, unexpected health events, or sharp changes in turnout dynamics that could compress margins in this special municipality race.