- 質問：スウェーデン議会選挙：エレブロ党は議席を獲得しましたか？44¢
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026. This market will resolve to “Yes” if Örebropartiet receives at least one seat in the Swedish Riksdag as a result of the 2026 Swedish parliamentary elections. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. Seats will be counted only where the Swedish Election Authority attributes them to Örebropartiet. Seats attributed to another party or electoral designation will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If Örebropartiet formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, seats officially attributed to that successor party will count. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by Örebropartiet in this election. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).
Recent polling in Örebro län shows Örebropartiet tripling its regional support to around 15 percent in a late August Novus survey, placing it level with Moderaterna and well above the 12 percent constituency threshold that could deliver one Riksdag seat without clearing the national 4 percent barrier. This local surge for the populist party, which already holds municipal and regional mandates, has created trader uncertainty ahead of the September 13 election. Offsetting factors include the absence of comparable parliamentary constituency polling, expert cautions that regional and national voting patterns differ, national “other” parties remaining near 2 percent, and no historical precedent for the 12 percent route. The slim majority favoring no seats reflects these structural hurdles and limited remaining campaign time, while sustained local momentum or stronger Örebro-specific parliamentary surveys could shift the balance either way.