- スウェーデン議会選挙：自由党は議席を獲得？38¢
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Liberals (L) receive at least one seat in the Swedish Riksdag as a result of the 2026 Swedish parliamentary elections. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. Seats will be counted only where the Swedish Election Authority attributes them to the Liberals, officially registered as Liberalerna (L). Seats attributed to another party or electoral designation will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If L formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, seats officially attributed to that successor party will count. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the Liberals (L) in this election. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).
Recent polling consistently places the Liberals (Liberalerna) below Sweden’s 4% national electoral threshold for Riksdag representation, driving the 62.5% trader probability on “No.” Multiple August 2026 surveys, including DN/Ipsos (2.3%) and Indikator Opinion (2.2%), show the party at or near historic lows after years of decline while serving as a junior partner in the Tidö government alongside the Moderates and Christian Democrats. The party’s support has hovered around 1–2.5% for much of 2026, with only marginal recent gains insufficient to approach the threshold. Leadership transition following Johan Pehrson’s 2025 resignation and Simona Mohamsson’s subsequent openness to greater Sweden Democrats influence triggered internal divisions without reversing voter losses. With the September 13 election just days away, the consensus among recent surveys indicates the Liberals are unlikely to secure any seats, consistent with the current market pricing.